A mere eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were a symptom or the source of the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. After the in-form star drilled in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough query to answer. The historical record, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have put together ten consecutive victories, they look weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for Rogers to rescue them with two precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred in London, and again against the Red Devils.
His opener came from a superb shot, curled just inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United had more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa must confront in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The winger could transform into the player he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. When the hero stood in front of the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
