A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
